By Wael Hossam El Din

In the final quarter of 2024, Cairo’s real estate sector showed quiet strength and clear signs of resilience despite ongoing economic challenges. With inflation easing and a clearer macroeconomic outlook, the capital’s property market leaned into a phase of relative stability. Compared to the more volatile or aggressively expanding markets of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Cairo’s approach was more measured—but no less significant.

Office Market in Q4: Stable Rents, Steady Demand

Cairo’s office market closed Q4 2024 on a stable note. The average city-wide vacancy rate edged down to 9.5%, from 9.6% the previous quarter. Meanwhile, average office rents dipped slightly by 1.8%, landing at USD 456 per square metre per annum.

This mild decline reflected landlords’ awareness of continued currency volatility. Many office leases—especially in newer developments—were priced in US dollars, a trend that has helped stabilize rental income and investor confidence. Grade A offices within mixed-use developments, which offer better parking and facilities, remained in high demand and commanded premium rates. However, incentives were limited, and negotiations were handled on a case-by-case basis.

Compared to GCC cities, Cairo’s office rents are more accessible. In Q4, Dubai recorded prime rents of USD 938 per square metre and Grade A rents of USD 641, supported by a 0.2% vacancy rate. Riyadh followed closely, with prime rents at USD 871 and Grade A at USD 609. Cairo’s competitive pricing, combined with expanding supply, could attract regional and international occupiers in 2025.

New office supply in Cairo during Q4 reached 130,936 sqm. Looking ahead, a significant 647,536 square metres is scheduled for completion in 2025, which could reshape the office leasing landscape, particularly in the Grade A segment.

Residential Sector in Q4: Demand-Driven Growth

The residential market in Cairo experienced sharp activity in Q4 2024. A total of 23,979 new units were delivered in 2024, bringing total stock to 292,628 units. In Q4 alone, rents in 6th of October and New Cairo surged by 108% compared to Q4 2023, pointing to strong end-of-year demand.

This rental growth outpaced other major African and Gulf markets. In Dubai, rents increased by 15.7% over the full year, and in Riyadh, Q4 apartment rents stood at USD 115 per square metre per annum. Cairo’s rapid increase reflects a unique combination of inflationary pressures, demand for newer stock, and currency-linked price adjustments.

On the sales side, Q4 saw homeowners continue aligning their prices with those of developers. Secondary market prices in 6th of October and New Cairo climbed by 112% and 116% respectively, year-on-year. While part of this growth was driven by real demand, much of it stemmed from inflation and attempts to keep pace with developer pricing, rather than buyer affordability.

For 2025, forecasts suggest that sales and rental prices will continue to rise, though at a slower pace. A projected 32,483 new residential units are expected to be completed, many of which will be in the New Administrative Capital’s R7 district.

Hospitality Sector in Q4: Record Visitors, Uneven Metrics

Cairo’s tourism industry reached a milestone in 2024, welcoming a record 15.7 mn visitors. While this achievement speaks to growing global interest, Q4 hotel performance data painted a mixed picture.

Occupancy dropped by 5.4 percentage points compared to the previous year, settling at 65.8%. ADR (Average Daily Rate) saw a minor increase of 0.52%, bringing it to USD 147, but RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) fell by 4.87%, reaching USD 97. These figures highlight a shift toward more budget-conscious travellers and the increasing popularity of short-term rental alternatives.

In comparison, Abu Dhabi posted stronger Q4 results, with RevPAR up 24.3% and occupancy reaching 79%. Riyadh also saw a 12% increase in RevPAR, even with a small drop in occupancy. Cairo’s numbers may appear modest in comparison, but they underline the need for targeted strategies to bridge the gap between growing arrivals and actual hotel performance.

In terms of new supply, Q4 2024 saw the opening of just one hotel—Hyatt Centric Cairo West. However, the pipeline for 2025 includes nearly 2,000 new keys, especially in West Cairo. These projects, combined with a USD 1 bn Central Bank initiative launched in October, aim to position the city as a leading tourism destination by attracting 18 mn visitors in 2025.

Construction and Project Activity: Cairo’s Steady Hand

While the broader Middle East and Africa region saw a 20.2% decline in construction project awards in 2024, Egypt held firm. It accounted for 6.8% of total project awards in the region, with roughly USD 6.1 bn in new contracts. Residential construction was the leading sector, with projects valued at USD 2.4 bn.

Q4 cost benchmarks further highlighted Cairo’s challenges:

• Concrete: EGP 5,426 per m3
• Rebar: EGP 57,831 per tonne
• Structural steel: EGP 75,375 per tonne

Fully finished apartments ranged from EGP 33,790 to 46,080 per sqm, while villas ranged from EGP 34,460 to 42,550. These rising costs underscore the pressure developers face when balancing affordability with construction viability.

In the GCC, project volumes were higher. The UAE led with USD 40.6 bn in project awards (45% of the region), followed by Saudi Arabia at USD 29.5 bn (33%). Egypt may trail in value, but its continued commitment to infrastructure development positions it as a steady presence in the region.

Macro Backdrop: Cairo Steadies Itself

Egypt closed the year with a GDP growth rate of 2.9%, and expectations for 2025 are more positive, with projections at 4.0%. Inflation, which peaked at 28.3%, is expected to cool to 17.8%. Currency pressures and high interest rates remain key challenges, but reforms and foreign investment have improved confidence.

By contrast, the GCC recorded an average GDP growth of 1.5% in 2024, largely impacted by oil production cuts. The UAE and Saudi Arabia led non-oil growth, with 4.7% and 4.5% respectively. In 2025, non-oil GDP is expected to rise by 3.9% across the bloc, showing resilience in diversification efforts.

Egypt’s economy, though facing different pressures, has shown signs of greater stability in Q4. Foreign direct investment—especially from GCC countries—continues to support Egypt’s real estate and tourism sectors.

Outlook for 2025: Cautious Momentum

As 2025 begins, Cairo’s real estate market stands on a firmer footing. The final quarter of 2024 demonstrated resilience across sectors. Office rents stabilized, residential demand surged, and the hospitality industry prepared for a significant expansion.

The city’s ability to attract more foreign capital, contain inflation, and deliver planned supply will determine how the next chapters unfold. Against the high-growth headlines from GCC cities like Dubai and Riyadh, Cairo’s story is more about steadiness and adaptation.

While Cairo may not be moving as fast, its pace in Q4 2024 was deliberate. And in a year defined by uncertainty, that kind of focus may be just what the city needs.