Dubai real estate prices may drop by 10 to 15 percent over the next two years due to the rising supply, the introduction of value added-tax in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), besides, the current geopolitical risks, S&P Global Ratings’ analysts said on Tuesday.

Residential and retail rents will also slump, forcing hotels to accept lower average daily room rates to maintain their occupancy levels, he added.

Dubai residential prices have already declined by 5 to 10 percent in 2017, cutting the earnings of UAE’s top property developers.

 According to the report, Emaar Properties and DAMAC Properties reported respective 16% and 47% drop in their net profits.

The National Bank of Kuwait also reported earlier this month that Dubai property prices have already fallen by 16 to 19 percent over the past three years.

“We believe this correction will continue at least for this year and next, before prices stabilize in 2020 at the earliest,” said Sapna Jagtiani, S&P’s credit analyst for corporate and real estate ratings.

Jagtiani said that the possible increase in economic activity during Dubai’s Expo 2020, a universal exposition expected to be attended by 25 mn visitors, could help the property market. However, she warned from the risk of “overbuild” in the property market.

She also assured that the predicted price decline would not be as severe as that experienced in 2009 due to prudence among creditors and tighter regulation of the property market. Dubai house dropped in 2009-2010 by more than 50% from their peaks, pushing the country close to a debt default.